Group D

Only one more group to go

GROUP D
Spain Sweden Greece Russia (The Group of Life)

Well, for every group of death you must have its opposite. Instead of four tight contendors ala Group C, here we have an overwhelming favourite in Spain and the rest are essentially also-rans with a great chance to get to the Quarterfinals. There is very little between Sweden, Greece and Russia, so this could easily end up being the tightest group as it pertains to qualification. Russia/Sweden on the final match day could well be crucial.

SPAIN
I think everyone has been picking Spain as there dark horses to do well since about 1950, and with the exception of one miserly European championship in the 1960s, they've done little to encourage those predictions. With each passing tournament, Spain comes in with an array of riches, has a memorable match that gets people talking about their chances (see Spain 4-0 Ukraine, Spain 4-3 Yugoslavia, etc) and then slump out in a daze by the Quaterfinals, if that. Now the Spanish, on the whole, are so disinterested in the national set up that this might seem fair enough. But to the neutral, a warning: any money spent on Spain is likely to be wasted, yet again.
Which is a shame, as they really do have a overload of talent, such is they can leave the likes of Raul and Bojan out of the provisional squad. This will be Luis Aragones last tournament.
In goal Iker Cassilas will continue to be No#1, short of assassination. Pepe Reina of Liverpool is there in case of injury/suspension, so they have two fairly decent stoppers at the back. Aragones recent back fours suggest he will go with Puyol and Marchena at centre defense and opt for Sergio Ramos on the right and Capdevila of Villarreal on the left. Doing their best to imitate total football, both Ramos and Capdevila are both known for going up front to attack at opportunities.

Trying to make sense of UEFAs bit about the midfield is a bit difficult. Here is what they say

UEFA

QUOTE

With Marcos Senna occupying a holding midfield role, central players Xavi Hernández and Cesc Fabregas are free to create for a lone striker or a pairing up front. Andrés Iniesta provides the pace on the counterattack with the versatile midfielder comfortable bursting through from central positions or from the right or the left, where he can switch with player, David Silva. Both Xavi and Iniesta are also capable of scoring goals, managing seven between them in qualification.

I think this implies 4-5-1 with a midfield ala

Senna (holding defensive midfield)
Xavi, Fabregas, Iniesta (your centre midfield)
David Silva

Then they can link up to Torres, with Fabregas and Iniesta coming forward. Personally I'd put Torres/Villa up front as a pairing, but apparently that would mean Aragones would sacrifice Fabregas. Embarrasement of riches, eh?

This suggests a line up of

Casillas
Capdevila, Marchena, Puyol, Ramos
Senna
Xavi, Fabregas, Iniesta
Silva
Torres

Which is not too shabby a lineup, especially when you consider they have David Villa, Xabi Alonso and Getafe sensation Ruben de la Red on the bench if needed.

Prediction
They wont win it. They'll get through this group, dazzle us all with some fine attacking play, and then capitulate to the runners up of the Group of Death. Its the Spanish way.

GREECE

Greece caused a major seismic shock when they won Euro2008. Unfortunately for me, I ignored the advice of Glasgow underground musician "Mad" Mick Stewart when he put his money on Greece. I could have been well off, I tell you, well off. But the chances of them doing the double are very slim. Lightning never strikes twice and all that.

Now this may toy with your expectations of Euro 2008, but my mysterious sources (ie, magazines, experts and fans from Greece, yeah, I know my sources aren't all that mysterious after all) tell me that, faced with elimination in the Qualifiers, Otto Rehagal dropped his defensive tactics and opted for a attack minded offence, leading to Greece qualifying with easy and lots of goals. Now, will this change continue to the Euros? I have my doubts, but it would be nice to see some of this new Greek outlook. In fact, UEFA.com expects Rehagal to drop his qualifying 4-3-3 for the tournament itself.

Nikopolodis, the George Clooney lookalike, is still the unreplaceable Greek no#1. (He must be like one of the most recognisable goalkeepers on the planet!). Marshalling the defense is Dellas and Krygiakos (a liability at Rangers but steadfast one of his countries most reliable defenders), with Antzas and Tosiridos filling out the back four. The midfield will definetly contain holding midfielders Katsouranis and Basinas, and attacking midfielder Karagounis. Amanatidis may fit on the left wing. Gekas, Charisteas, Samaras and supersub Liberopolous will fit it out for the strikers berths.

This leaves us with a lineup like this

Nikopolodis
Antzas, Dellas, Krygiakos, Tosiridos
Katsouranis, Basinias
Amanatidis, Karagounis
Gekas, Charisteas

Something like that. Greek could go far, but dont expect a repeat success.

RUSSIA
When the time comes to write the football eulogy for one Guus Hiddink, the term "miracle worker" wont be too far off the top. This is a man who seems to walk in and turn everything he touches to gold. PSV? National champions, sweeping aside the Ajax domination of the 90s and getting to Champions League semis. South Korea? Semifinalists of the world Cup. Australia? Qualifying for the World Cup for the first time since 1974, and getting to the 2nd round. Russia? Qualifying ahead of England for Euro2008. For a country whose national confidence in their national team hit rock bottom two years ago (when they missed a World cup playoff thanks to Slovakia and had trouble beatin g the likes of Latvia and Estonia, as well as falling 7-1 to Portugal) qualifying for this tournament is a major success. No matter how they perform this month, Hiddink and his players will be lauded for their achievement in their homeland. However, the group they landed in is very fortunate: the fixtures and the Hiddink touch could very well see Russia go to the Quarterfinals.

There is however, one unfortuate piece of bad luck. Remember Pogrebynak , the Zenit forward and top scorer in this years UEFA Cup? He missed the UEFA Cup final thanks to an overzealous referee, and now he may miss Euro 2008 due to injury. His chances of appearing though are marginally better than they were last week. Hiddink however will stay loyal to the striker and refuses to replace him in the squad. "Even if Pavel cannot make the Spain game, he is still not going anywhere!" said the coach. His options up front are further stimmied by the fact that star striker Andrei Arshavin is ineligble for the first two group stage games, a result of his suspension.

One fact for all you trivia buffs out there is this: Russia's first eleven should be the youngest in the tournament, as Hiddink turned to youth after he was appointed manager.

Akinfeev, surely due a big money move from CSKA Moscow before long, has cemented his place as the successor to Sergei Ovchinnikov in goal. Russian goalkeepers have a lot to live up to with the legend that is Lev Yashin looming over them, but Igor seems set to shine in his first major international tournament. Hiddink prefers the Martin O'Neill 3-5-2 formation, and goes for a back three of Ignasevitch and two Berezutskis's, Vasili and Alexsei. Hiddink responded to the leaky defence of recent years by packing his midfield. Shemshov and Zyrianov (Russian player of the year) act as the defensive midfield rocks. Bilyaletdinov and two of Zhirkov, Bystrov, Saenko and Tobinskiy form the attacking part of the midfield. As a result Russia conceded only seven goals in qualifying, though the fact that four of those goals were scored by England suggests they can be got at.
With injuries and suspensions, the front two may very well be Sychev and Pavlyuchenko, though expect Arshavin if he plays in Match #3 to be a more deep playing player.

So there line up should look something like this
Akinfeev
Ignasevitch, A Berezutski, V Berezutski
Shemshov, Zyrianov
Bilyaletdinov, Bystrov, Zhirkov
Sychev, Pavlyuchenko (though when Pobregnyak is fit and Arshavin unsuspended, they will fit in here)

Prediction
Like Greece and Sweden, Russia will be fighting it out for the 2nd spot in the group. What gives Russia the edge over Greece is that their last match is vs. Sweden as opposed to vs.Spain. However the fixtures have not been kind to Russia. Their first match is Spain, one they cannot expect much from, and if they lose their next game against Greece, they will be out before the postcards are sent, let alone arrive. Because of this, I'd rank Russia as 3rd favourites to make 2nd spot. But don't be fooled by that. This is a really tight group.

Last team! I'm almost free! Free to make more outlandish predictions that never go anywhere.

SWEDEN

Sweden is currently buzzing. Not just because its the Euros. Not just because they are at their 5th straight international tournament, a fantastic record for a smaller country. No, they are buzzing because Henrik frikkin' Larsson has responded to their prayers to take to the field as a Swedish international one more time. Henrik-mania has swept the country as Larsson, 37 in September, returns to the fold for what will certainly be a final bow. The amazing thing is Larsson has retired from international football three times this decade, and each time he has been begged out of it by his adoring public, UEFA and teammates. The man is idolized in his homeland beyond anything, and will be looking to score at an incredible 6th international tournament, a world record. Larsson playing is also beneficial to the team, as he tends to get the best out of Ibrahimovic, and Swedens hopes may fall or die by thier mecurial yet moody and bloody annoying scorer of great goals. (Ibrahimovic, to qoute Sir Bobby Charlton, is not a great scorer of goals, he is a scorer of great goals. He is also a bit of an arse who hasn't scored for his national side since 2005. So watch him score a 40 yard beauty with one foot against the Spanish now!). Also, this gives the impressive Elmander, ready to move from Toulouse to a number of interested clubs, a chance to play alongside his idol.

This makes the Swedish rather happy. And this pyschological boost is possibly exactly what they need to get out of this group. Sweden have form at international tournaments of getting out of the group stage, and at the last European Championships were highly unfortunate not to beat the Dutch in a Quarterfinal penalty shootout.

Likely lineup
Isakkson
Dorsin, Mellburg, Majstorovic, Stoor
Ljunberg, Linderoth, A Svensson, Wilhelmsson
Larsson, Ibrahimovic


The aging backline is dependable but could be a weakness to Sweden's chances, though their fast wingers mean the team is never far off going 4-2-4 at attacking. Defensive liabilities, but scoring potential? Expect big scores from Sweden in the tournament.
I think they'll finish 2nd (Sorry, John C!). The reason is the fixtures are in thier favour. Greece first, Spain in the middle and Russia last is exactly how to go about the group, and it may well help the Swedish get to the Quarterfinals again. From their, they would probably fall to a Group of Death survivor. Although, what price a Larsson swansong goal to knock out the Dutch in revenge for the penalty that never was in Portugal? Anything could happen.